Berlin, February 24, 2025 – Germany’s conservative CDU/CSU secured victory in the federal election held on February 23, 2025, clinching 208 seats in the Bundestag.
This election outcome positions Friedrich Merz favorably to become the next chancellor.
However, with no single party achieving a majority, coalition negotiations are now underway, alongside growing concerns about EU security and the notable rise in political influence of the far-right.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) attained a historic second place with 152 seats, underscoring a significant shift in the German political landscape and prompting discussions about political stability.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), collectively known as the conservatives, saw their leader, Friedrich Merz, positioned as the likely successor to Olaf Scholz.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), under the leadership of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, garnered 120 seats.
Meanwhile, the Greens and the Left party obtained 85 and 64 seats, respectively.
In a surprising turn, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to meet the 5% threshold, securing only 4.3% of the vote and losing all their seats. As coalition talks begin, the focus is now on which parties can come together to form a stable government.
Coalition Dynamics and Political Landscape
As no party commands a majority in the 629-seat Bundestag, coalition talks are essential.
Friedrich Merz has explicitly ruled out any coalition with the AfD, thereby limiting potential partners to the SPD, Greens, and Left.
Possible coalition scenarios include a CDU/CSU alliance with the SPD and Greens, which would create a total of 413 seats, surpassing the required 315-seat majority.
A grand coalition involving the SPD or a broader alliance including Greens and Left is possible; however, ideological differences, particularly on economic and social policies, may complicate negotiations.
As Politico notes, Merz is open to center-left parties, but forming a stable government will require bridging some significant policy gaps.
The election, triggered by the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition in November 2024 due to budget disputes and ideological rifts, saw a voter turnout of 83%, marking the highest participation rate since German reunification in 1990.
The CDU/CSU’s gain of 11 seats underscores their increased support, while the AfD’s significant surge of 69 seats highlights growing discontent with mainstream politics.
Therefore, with the political landscape shifting, the focus remains on the negotiations.
EU Security and Broader Implications
EU security has surfaced as a critical issue, primarily driven by global geopolitical shifts and potential changes in US foreign policy following Donald Trump’s re-election.
Germany’s role as the EU’s largest economy amplifies its influence on European defense and security strategies.
According to The Economist, there are concerns about preparing voters for difficult decisions, especially regarding meeting NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending target, given Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
The election results could potentially reshape Germany’s approach to EU security.
Merz’s leadership suggests a possible pivot toward a more assertive European defense posture. The composition of the coalition will be crucial, as parties like the Greens and Left might advocate for integrating climate considerations into security policy, while the SPD may align with traditional social democratic views on multilateralism.
As BBC News reports, the AfD’s rise has sent shockwaves across Europe, potentially influencing other EU member states’ approaches to far-right politics.
Nevertheless, the exclusion of the AfD from coalition talks ensures that Germany’s government remains within the mainstream.
In addition, the focus on EU security is intertwined with broader European challenges, such as the expiration of defense procurement acts (ASAP, EDIRPA) in mid-2025. Germany’s new government will need to take the lead in developing a robust six-month plan for European defense.
Ultimately, the 2025 German election marks a conservative victory with significant ramifications for coalition formation and EU policy.
With Merz at the helm, coalition talks will likely involve center-left parties, emphasizing a balance between economic recovery and enhanced EU security measures.
While the AfD’s rise is notable, its exclusion from government ensures continuity in Germany’s commitment to democratic norms, albeit in an increasingly polarized political environment.
