Wind-blown avian feces may spread bird flu, warns expert. Egg prices expected to remain high in 2025 due to H5N1 outbreak
The highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu virus continues to wreak havoc across the U.S., with infectious disease experts warning that wind-blown avian feces could be a significant route of transmission.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that egg prices will remain at record highs throughout 2025, as the outbreak devastates poultry flocks and disrupts supply chains.
How Wind-Blown Feces Could Spread Bird Flu
Dr. Michael Osterholm, a leading infectious disease expert and director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), has raised concerns about the potential for wind-blown avian feces to spread the H5N1 virus.
Migratory waterfowl, such as geese and ducks, often defecate in farm fields, and wind can carry these particles into poultry barns that lack airtight protection.
“This is similar to how Valley fever, a fungal disease, spreads through dust,” Osterholm explained.
“Many poultry facilities don’t have HEPA-filtered air intake systems, making them vulnerable to airborne transmission.”
This environmental transmission could lead to more unexplained human cases, as people may inhale the virus without direct contact with infected animals.
Osterholm’s warning comes as the U.S. grapples with one of the worst bird flu outbreaks in history, affecting over 139 million birds since February 2022.
Egg Prices Expected to Remain High
The bird flu outbreak has had a devastating impact on the poultry industry, with egg prices reaching record highs in late 2024.
Wholesale prices for grade A large eggs hit $5.91 per dozen, and the USDA forecasts that prices will remain elevated throughout 2025, with an expected 11.4% increase.
California, which has lost 90% of its in-state egg production, is among the hardest-hit regions. The state’s reliance on imported eggs has further strained supplies, driving prices even higher.
Why Egg Prices Are Soaring
- Poultry Flock Losses: The H5N1 virus has devastated commercial and backyard poultry flocks, with 9% of the U.S. laying flock lost since mid-October 2024.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Limited supplies of breaking eggs, used in food manufacturing, have forced processors to prioritize retail sales, further straining the market.
- Seasonal Challenges: The late start to the 2024 outbreaks has left little time for producers to repopulate flocks before the spring wild bird migration, which could bring another wave of infections.
Broader Impacts on Agriculture and Consumers
The bird flu outbreak isn’t just affecting poultry; it has also crossed over to dairy cattle, with over 928 herds infected across 16 states.
Unlike poultry, cattle are not culled, allowing the virus to persist in the environment and complicating containment efforts.
For consumers, the high egg prices are reshaping food choices. Many are turning to plant-based alternatives like JUST Egg, while others are exploring local options such as farmers’ markets and backyard chicken coops.
Experts Call for Introduction of HEPA-Filtered Air Systems
As the bird flu crisis continues, experts like Dr. Osterholm are calling for improved biosecurity measures, including HEPA-filtered air systems in poultry facilities. Meanwhile, the USDA is working with producers to repopulate flocks and stabilize the market.
For now, however, consumers should brace for continued high egg prices and potential disruptions in the food supply chain.